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March
2008
During the first week of March 2008, The Trust Company will be
making some changes to our investment portfolios. As part
of our proactive investment monitoring process, we have decided
to terminate the Neuberger Berman International mutual fund. Our
original intent in hiring Neuberger several years ago was to have
exposure in small and mid cap international stocks while other
managers could cover the large cap international style. Neuberger
has been increasingly purchasing large cap international stocks
where our other international managers are already investing. We
cannot argue with Neuberger’s recent change in strategy from
an opportunity standpoint, but we already have coverage in that
area. Causeway International Value and William Blair International
Growth (or Principal International Growth for some types of retirement
plans) have a much more proven investment process in large cap
international stocks. Therefore, in our stock mix we are
going to maintain a 20% allocation to international stocks and
invest half with Causeway and half with William Blair (or Principal).
The small and mid cap international sector has done very well
over the last several years, including emerging markets. As performance
in different sectors tends to cycle, we do not think it is a good
time to allocate more towards the small and mid international or
emerging markets sectors. Going forward, we will evaluate
if and when we should allocate more towards small and mid cap international
or emerging markets.
At this time we do not plan on any other manager changes or allocation
changes but we will continue to daily monitor our recommended managers
and investment portfolios to make sure we are doing what is best
for our clients. We appreciate your business at The Trust
Company!
2/28/07,
Wednesday
Tuesday’s
Market Decline
Yesterday, the
Dow declined over 416 points or 3.29%. Historically speaking, the
decline was the 7th largest point decline ever, yet it doesn’t
even fall within the top 50 worst days as a percentage decline.
The Trust Company invests with a long-term perspective and does
not over react to short-term gyrations of the market. For the period
1985-2006, there have been 5,297 trading days for the S&P 500.
Over this period a S&P investor has had an average annual return
of 12.12%. Had an investor missed the best 10, 40, or 70 days, their
return would have 8.56%, 1.87%, and <3.02%>, respectively.
Remember, it is “ the time in the market, not timing the market
” that really matters.
Several factors
influenced Tuesday’s decline. First, on the domestic front,
Alan Greenspan, who recently retired after 18 years as Chairman
of the Federal Reserve, commented that the U.S. economy might be
heading into a recession. This was very unnerving to the market
and the market reacted accordingly. His comments are reminiscent
of the famous E.F. Hutton, a defunct brokerage firm, ad that had
the famous slogan, “When E.F. Hutton talks, people listen.”
When Greenspan speaks, the world listens.
At The Trust
Company we believe the economy is strong and will continue to grow.
The huge impact of productivity gains on our economy doesn’t
always show up in the government statistics. The foundation of capitalism
is to provide a product or service that creates value for the consumer
and a profit for the provider. In order to survive the ever-changing
landscape of competition, providers must find ways of doing it better
and cheaper, and as a result they achieve productivity gains.
Certain areas
of the market have performed better than others since the market
peak of March 24, 2000 through December 31, 2006 (see chart).
Total
Returns (3/24/00-12/31/06)
| |
Value |
Growth |
| Large |
Russell
1000 Value
69.45%
|
Russell
1000 Growth
<36.31%>
|
| Small |
Russell
2000 Value
172.96%
|
Russell
2000 Growth
<18.41%>
|
We
recognize there are periods where extremes are reached on both ends
of the spectrum and it is at these times that real value can be
added. The Trust Company has always been proactive in its investment
strategy and as a consequence, as stated in our 12/31/2006 Commentary,
we are reducing our exposure to small-mid cap stocks (taking profits)
and increasing our allocation to large cap companies (buying low).
The second significant factor in the US market decline was the 8.8%
decline in the China Shanghai Composite Index, the largest in over
10 years. It was fueled by profit taking in light of the index being
up over 130% in 2006 and had advanced by over 20% in 2007, prior
to yesterday’s decline. One would expect some type of pull
back in light of the red-hot performance. Another concern was that
the Chinese government would begin to take steps to slow the economy.
Their economy would still be strong even if the government ever
so softly taps on the brakes. What is important to understand is
that this is a shift from their perspective of unbridled economic
growth. Apparently, they are recognizing that there are limits that
if ignored, can cause adverse economic consequences in the long
run.
As always, The
Trust Company appreciates the confidence you have shown by allowing
us to manage your monies. Remember, we are investing our monies
the same way that we are recommending you our clients. Please do
not hesitate to call with any questions or concerns.
March
2007
We
will be replacing three managers as well as making changes to the
allocations of our stock portfolios. These changes will be completed
by March 8th. The following bullet points summarize the upcoming
changes.
-
Wells Fargo Capital Advantage (SLGIX) replacing TCW Galileo Select
Equities Fund (TGCNX) & Aston/Montag & Caldwell Growth
Fund (MCGNX)– Wells Fargo Capital Advantage (SLGIX) has
demonstrated the ability to outperform in both up and down markets.
Over the last several years, the large growth style as a whole
has lagged in performance versus other styles. We believe it is
poised to do well versus other investment styles and we are confident
that Wells Fargo will outperform its peer group. TCW and Montag
were utilized to cover the large growth allocation with independent
strategies. The combination has not performed as we had hoped.
-
Rainier Mid Cap Equity (RIMMX) replacing Calamos Growth (CVGRX)
– Rainier Mid Cap Equity (RIMMX) is a fund with a stellar
investment process and is committed to investing in the mid growth
space. They also understand the importance of closing a fund at
the appropriate time to benefit their shareholders. Calamos Growth
was originally hired to cover the mid growth allocation, but we
have seen an increase in the number of large cap growth names
that have been added to the portfolio. The fund has also experienced
tremendous growth in assets and they have been unwilling to close
it or limit their investments to the mid growth space.
-
Stock Portfolio Allocation Changes – Our stock portfolio
currently has 50% allocated to the large cap style. We will be
increasing that large cap allocation to 60% while reducing our
mid and small cap exposure from 30% to 20%. The two reasons for
this change are the slowing economy and underperformance of large
cap stocks over the last several years. As the economy slows down,
large cap names are typically favored and we want to take advantage
of that without abandoning exposure to mid cap, small cap, or
international stocks. Additionally, because large cap stocks have
been out of favor for several years, we believe that the pendulum
is going to swing back to them. We don’t know exactly when
that will happen but we want to be in position when it does.
-
Aggressive Portfolio Allocation Changes – Our aggressive
portfolio historically has taken on more risk for longer-term
investors (20+ years). In the last several years, we have allocated
more to the small and mid cap space, which has generated additional
return but we will now be reducing it from 60% to 40%. At the
same time, we will be increasing our allocation to large caps
from 20% to 40%. We are also going to overweight the growth style
to 60% as opposed to equally weighting growth and value. Just
as small cap stocks have outperformed large caps in the last several
years, value strategies have outperformed growth strategies. We
see the tide turning here and are going to position the portfolio
as such.
Please
contact The Trust Company if you have questions or would like additional
information.
(865) 971-1902
November
20, 2006
As
seen in the Knoxville New Sentinel
Knoxville
firm reaches $1 billion milestone
The
Trust Co., an administrator of trusts and employee benefits, has
reached $1 billion of assets under management, said president and
CEO Sharon Miller Pryse.
"Our
20th birthday will be in January. We look forward to strengthening
our relationships and service over the next two decades," she
said.
The
Trust Co. has 42 employees and manages investments for individuals,
foundations, 401k plans and trusts.
October
18, 2006
ABN
AMRO sold its U.S. mutual fund business to Highbury Financial Inc.
on March 31, 2006. As a result, the ABN AMRO funds will be re-branded
The Aston Funds, and the ABN AMRO/Montag & Caldwell Growth Fund
- N Shares - will become the Aston/Montag & Caldwell Growth
Fund - N Shares, effective October 31, 2006. Montag & Caldwell
will remain as advisor to the Fund, and the operations team administering
the Fund will remain intact.
April
17, 2006
The
Trust Company of Knoxville is making some changes to our recommended
investment mix. The change is being made to our fixed income portfolios
as a result of Goldman Sachs purchasing the First Funds Group. In
light of this, we will be liquidating our position in the First
Fund Intermediate Bond Fund, which represent a 1/3 position in our
fixed income portfolios. We will reallocate the First Funds sale
proceeds to the PIMCO Total Return Fund, which over the last 5 and
10 year periods have been in the top 10% of its peer group. This
change will take effect at the end of April 2006. If you have any
questions or would like further information, please contact your
Account Administrator.
New
2008 Plan Limits
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